Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Weston/Myers Illinois Governor Election Tele-Poll, September 29th, 2009

Weston/Myers Illinois Tele-Poll

Conducted Tuesday, September 29th, 2009
5,000 calls made to random registered voters statewide.

We asked: "Who will you vote for in the 2010 Illinois General Election?", and provided our list of candidates that we sourced from Wikipedia.org, uselections.com, and Google.

Poll: Illinois Governor, 2010

Generic Democrat: 31%
Generic Republican: 34%
Ray Lear- Libertarian 21%
Randall Stufflebeam- Constitution 4%
Michael White- Independent 2%
Rich Whitney- Green 4%
Other/Undecided: 4%

Poll: Illinois Lieutenant Governor, 2010

Generic Democrat: 20%
Generic Republican: 25%
Jason Dodson- Libertarian 17%
Generic Constitution: 5%
Generic Independent: 2%
Don Crawford- Green 10%
Other/Undecided: 21%

We then asked, "Why did you choose this candidate?"

The most common response given was that they "always voted this way". The second most common response was that "we need a new direction". Of the 5,000 registered voters, approximately 2000 were registered Democrats, 2000 were registered Republicans, and 1000 were either Independent or non-affiliated. Of the 2000 in each major party surveyed, 500 were age 18-25, 500 were age 26-35, 500 were age 36-50, and 500 were over 50. Of each group of 500, we evenly surveyed 250 women and 250 men. Based on the tabulations, more Democrats than Republicans in Illinois seem to be breaking party ranks and moving toward third party candidates- in this particular case, the Libertarian Party. This result is a completely different shift than what has been observed in recent years. More women than men, by about a 55-45 margin, broke from their respective parties, but men also broke party lines. There are a few possibilities for this shift. One, the Illinois Democrats south of Chicago tend to be more rural, and in many cases, more conservative, but want to hang on to some of their core Democratic principles. Secondly, with the fallout from the Rod Blagojevich scandal, many Democrats are running from their own party. The current Democratic Governor, Pat Quinn, has many Democrats in rural Illinois in an uproar over a recent large tax increase and cuts in needed rural programs. Thirdly, with all of the media coverage of tax protests, bailout protests, and other protests such as outrage at town-hall meetings, "tea parties" and the like, the need for fiscal responsibility is resonating with voters in rural and middle-class Illinois, regardless of party affiliation. The idea of a return to principles of liberty seemed to be a factor in this poll. And, the numbers did not look well for the Republicans either. Many registered Republicans in this poll (albeit not as many as Democrats) broke party rank and chose third party as well, specifically in the Governor's race. The data is still rather insufficient in the Lieutenant Governor's race because all party candidates have not reported as of yet. This resulted in a high response number for "Other and Undecided". If we are to look at this as any kind of bellwether, I would say that this might be the year for a third party to challenge the big two, and it looks as if the Libertarians have the biggest chance to make this a three-way race.

Paul Weston is an Independent AP-Affiliated Journalist from Normal, Illinois
Steven Myers is a Political Consultant from Evanston, Illinois

Weston and Myers are both politically Independent.

Contact us at: weston.myers@live.com

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